Playing a Numbers Game: Projecting the Chase for the Sprint Cup in March

There's a trick to predicting the Chase for the Sprint Cup. It's not particularly difficult if you follow the trail that the past few years' worth of standings have produced.In fact, I probably can tell you right now who's going to make this year's Chase, even though we're only three rounds into the season. I doubt I miss more than two drivers, if any. Not convinced? Alright, let's go through the whole shebang and play what I like to call a numbers game—that is, we're going to look at the numbers from the past few seasons and figure out who's going to make it and who isn't. It starts with last year's champion. Only one driver missed the Chase the year after winning it, Tony Stewart in 2005, and that was under the 10-driver format. His...

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