How Reliable Are Early ‘Headline’ Formula 1 Testing Times?

It's always said that "headline" Formula One testing times—teams' quickest laps—are a poor indicator of the season ahead. The teams run different fuel loads, programmes, drivers, tyres and engine modes, setting different targets and often facing different track conditions. Some teams try to hide their true pace, others go for glory to impress potential sponsors. The general belief is the only reliable way to get a handle on the real running order is by waiting until the first race of the year. There, we get to see all the cars doing the same thing, on the same track, at the same time. But how accurate is this belief? As the first test of 2015 draws to a close, here we look at the five previous seasons—2010 to 2014—an...

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